BTC/USD Forecast: Break Above 78,125 Targets 82,000

The cryptocurrency market was supported by a weaker US dollar after the yield on 30-year Treasury bonds touched 5.337%, its highest level since 2007. On Wednesday, the US Treasury announced an increase in long-end liquidity-support buybacks from a maximum of $2.0 billion to at least $4.0 billion per operation. The new limit applies to the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year sectors and will be effective from September 9 through November 4. The announcement initially lowered long-term yields and weakened the dollar, improving demand for alternative and higher-risk assets.

Bitcoin’s advance was amplified by a short squeeze that pushed crypto liquidations above $4.0 billion. According to CoinGlass, approximately $3.0 billion in bearish positions were liquidated on Thursday, followed by roughly another $1.2 billion over the next rolling 24-hour period. The largest individual liquidation was a $25.13 million Bitcoin position on Hyperliquid.

The recovery also prompted more optimistic forecasts. Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick said the bank’s formal year-end target of $100,000 may now be too conservative and that Bitcoin could retest its record near $126,000 before the end of the year. However, the bank has not formally replaced the $100,000 target with a new $126,000 forecast. Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio separately advised investors to underweight bonds, increase exposure to gold and hold a small Bitcoin allocation as protection against long-term debt and currency risks.

Institutional demand strengthened alongside prices. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1.918 billion in net inflows during the five trading sessions through August 21, rather than an increase in their “balance.” The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also entered the “Greed” zone and reached 72 on August 21.

Nevertheless, the rally could slow or give way to a correction if the Senate again delays the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or CLARITY Act. The next procedural step is expected around September 15, but disagreements over ethics and conflict-of-interest provisions remain unresolved. This would be a procedural vote rather than final approval of the legislation.

Federal Reserve policy is another risk. CME FedWatch placed the probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in September at approximately 40% as of August 22, while markets continued to price a greater than 70% probability of at least one increase by year-end. Investors are now awaiting comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who will deliver his first keynote address at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday, August 28.

Support and Resistance Levels

BTC/USD has broken out of the 65,625.00–62,500.00 sideways range, where it had traded for about two months, and is approaching 78,125.00, the Murrey [+1/8] level. A confirmed breakout above this mark could extend the advance toward 82,000.00, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, and 87,500.00, the weekly Murrey [3/8] level. Conversely, consolidation below 71,875.00 could lead to a decline toward 65,625.00 and 59,375.00.

Technical indicators provide mixed signals. The Bollinger Bands have turned higher and the MACD histogram is expanding in positive territory, while the Stochastic Oscillator is preparing to leave the overbought zone, indicating a risk of correction.

Resistance levels: 78,125.00, 82,000.00, 87,500.00.

Support levels: 71,875.00, 65,625.00, 59,375.00.

BTC/USD Trading Scenarios and Price Forecast

Long positions may be considered above 78,125.00, with targets at 82,000.00 and 87,500.00 and a stop-loss at 75,800.00. Time frame: 5–7 days.

Short positions may be considered below 71,875.00, with targets at 65,625.00 and 59,375.00 and a stop-loss at 76,600.00.

Conclusion: The short-term outlook remains positive while BTC/USD holds above 71,875.00. However, overbought conditions and the scale of the liquidation-driven rally leave room for consolidation before another attempt to break 78,125.00.